The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook has revised the UAE’s economic growth forecasts, with a lower projection for 2023 and an upgraded estimate for 2024.
Revised Growth Forecast for 2023:
- The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook has downgraded the UAE’s economic growth forecast 2023 to 3.4%, a 0.2% reduction from its previous projection in June.
- Despite the downgrade, the UAE’s growth outlook for 2023 remains positive.
Upgraded Growth Forecast for 2024:
- The IMF has upgraded the UAE’s economic growth forecast 2024 to 4.0%, representing a 0.1% increase from earlier estimates.
Fastest-Growing Economy in 2028:
- The UAE is expected to be the fastest-growing economy in 2028, with a projected growth rate of 4.5%.
- This surpasses growth forecasts for neighboring Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
World Economic Outlook and Global Scenario:
- The IMF said that the global economy is in a slow recovery from the impacts of the pandemic, the Ukraine conflict, and rising living costs.
- The global economy remains marked by uneven growth and challenges, with varying regional and sectoral trends.
- Projections suggest a soft landing scenario for the global economy, aiming to bring down inflation without a significant economic downturn.
Global Economic Growth Forecasts:
- World economic growth is expected to slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024.
- This represents a slight reduction in the 2024 growth forecast compared to July projections.
Advanced Economies and US Outlook:
- Advanced economies are expected to experience a slowdown, with stronger US momentum but weaker euro area growth.
- The US is forecasted to have moderate growth of 2.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024.
- IMF’s projections for the US include a modest increase in unemployment from 3.6% to 3.9% by 2025.
Emerging Markets and Developing Economies:
- Growth in emerging markets and evolving economies is expected to decline modestly, from 4.1% in 2022 to 4.0% in 2023 and 2024, with a slight downward revision for 2024.
- India is projected to consistently grow 6.3% for 2023 and 2024.
Impact on the UAE and Regional Economies:
- The UAE’s economic prospects remain resilient, with adjustments in growth forecasts for the short term and the potential for stronger expansion in 2024.
Note: The IMF’s revised economic growth forecasts reflect the ongoing dynamics and challenges of the global economy and their implications for the UAE and other countries.
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