Investors following the Dubai real estate price correction forecast are being urged not to panic. Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties, has cautioned buyers and property investors to avoid being swayed by predictions of sharp declines in property prices. While some agencies and analysts have forecast a possible 10 to 15 percent dip in values in the coming years, Al Msaddi argues that the reality is far more complex than simple projections suggest.
He emphasizes that focusing only on price correction forecasts can be misleading and may prevent investors from recognizing the true opportunities in the market. According to him, property values in Dubai are influenced by many different factors that work together, not just supply figures or forecast models.
Why forecasts dominate the headlines
Forecasts of price corrections tend to dominate headlines because they make strong statements that attract attention. In Dubai’s case, several global agencies have pointed to rising supply as the main reason for a possible fall in property prices. The reasoning is straightforward: if too many new units enter the market at once, demand may not keep up, leading to downward pressure on prices.
However, this single-factor view often ignores the deeper realities of Dubai’s property market. The city is not only a hub for investors but also a magnet for residents, professionals, and long-term visa holders. The ongoing demand from people choosing to live and work in Dubai creates a solid base of end users, which forecasts sometimes fail to fully consider.
Al Msaddi’s perspective on the forecasts
Al Msaddi warns that relying too heavily on these forecasts is risky. He points out that predictions focusing only on new deliveries are too simplistic. Instead, investors should monitor the interaction between demand, rental values, liquidity, and supply. Real estate cycles are shaped by the balance of these factors, and ignoring any of them could lead to poor investment decisions.
To help investors better understand the real market picture, Al Msaddi highlights seven key indicators that give early signs of where the market might be heading. These indicators include:
1. Bid weakness
When buyers start pushing back on seller prices through counteroffers, discounts, or extra incentives, it can suggest that demand is cooling.
2. Days on market
This refers to how long it takes for a property to be sold. A rising number of days on the market is often an early warning of declining demand.
3. Sales volume trends
If the number of completed sales falls steadily over several months, it indicates that fewer buyers are willing or able to close deals.
4. Inventory and absorption rate
This measures whether new properties are being absorbed quickly or if they are piling up unsold. A rising inventory with slow absorption points toward oversupply.
5. Yield compression
When property prices rise faster than rents, the return on investment for landlords falls. This can discourage new investors and slow demand.
6. Rent versus price divergence
If rental prices stagnate or fall while property prices continue to climb, it could signal an imbalance that makes the market vulnerable to correction.
7. Mortgage costs and liquidity
Interest rates, lending policies, and access to financing play a big role in determining buyer power. A rise in borrowing costs can reduce affordability.
By monitoring these seven signals, investors can develop a clearer view of the market’s real direction rather than depending on general forecasts.
Why forecasts may be overstated
While reports of a 10 to 15 percent decline have raised concerns, several factors suggest that the situation may not be as negative as predicted.
Migration and population growth
Dubai continues to attract new residents, professionals, and entrepreneurs. This population growth creates consistent housing demand, helping stabilize prices even in periods of oversupply.
Strong rental environment
Rents across many areas of Dubai have reached record levels. High rents support property prices by ensuring that investors can still achieve attractive returns on their assets.
Phased project deliveries
Developers often hand over large projects in phases or experience delays. This means the feared oversupply does not usually arrive all at once, reducing the pressure on prices.
Segmented markets
Dubai’s property market is not uniform. Luxury villas and prime waterfront apartments behave differently from mass-market flats. A slowdown in one segment does not automatically mean a broad market collapse.
Stronger regulation and financing conditions
The UAE has taken steps to avoid the kind of leverage-driven bubble seen before the global financial crisis. Banks are more cautious, and regulations encourage healthy long-term growth.
Together, these elements suggest that forecasts pointing to sharp double-digit corrections may overstate the risks.
How investors should approach forecasts
Al Msaddi advises investors to use forecasts as one of many tools, not as the sole basis for decision-making. Predictions are scenarios, not certainties, and they should be balanced with real-time data and deeper market insights.
Treat forecasts as guidance, not guarantees
Rather than reacting immediately to projections of a fall, investors should compare them with other data sources and on-the-ground indicators.
Focus on micro-markets
Dubai is diverse. While one area may see slower demand, another district may remain strong because of location, lifestyle, or limited supply.
Prioritize quality investments
During uncertain times, choosing projects with reputable developers, transparent contracts, and strong locations provides more security against market swings.
Think long term
Even if there is a correction, Dubai’s real estate remains attractive over the long horizon. Investors with patience and a strategic mindset can benefit when others are selling in fear.
What to expect in the coming years
Looking ahead to 2025 and 2026, the market could face different scenarios. Some analysts predict a moderate softening of around 5 to 10 percent in certain segments, particularly where oversupply is most visible. Others expect only a flattening of growth rather than an outright fall.
Luxury areas and prime developments are likely to remain resilient due to high demand from wealthy buyers and limited supply. Meanwhile, middle-income apartment blocks in outer districts could face more pressure if supply exceeds absorption.
Rather than fearing a dramatic collapse, investors should prepare for a more measured adjustment. Dubai’s real estate market has historically been cyclical, and corrections often pave the way for more sustainable growth.
Reading the signals: a case example
Imagine a mid-priced apartment tower outside the city center. Over several months, listings remain unsold for longer periods, sellers begin offering discounts, sales volumes decline, and yields start shrinking. These signals suggest the area may experience a mild correction soon.
Now consider a luxury tower in a prime waterfront location. Despite forecasts, units there continue to rent quickly, sales remain steady, and inventory levels are stable. In this case, correction risk is far lower. This comparison shows why investors must focus on signals at the segment level rather than relying solely on broad forecasts.
Key lessons for property investors
- Do not panic when reading about a Dubai real estate price correction forecast.
- Watch the market’s real-time indicators, such as days on market, sales volumes, and rental yields.
- Recognize that Dubai is not one market but many smaller ones, each moving differently.
- Choose quality and long-term value over speculation in uncertain times.
- See corrections as opportunities rather than threats when guided by smart analysis.
Conclusion
Talk of a Dubai real estate price correction forecast will continue to make headlines, but investors should not let these predictions dictate their decisions. As Firas Al Msaddi emphasizes, the real market picture is shaped by multiple factors working together, not by simple supply projections. By keeping an eye on demand, liquidity, rental dynamics, and early warning signals, investors can avoid emotional decisions and make choices that serve them well in the long run.
Dubai’s property market may face some adjustments in the coming years, but it remains one of the world’s most dynamic real estate destinations. For those who look beyond the noise and approach the market with discipline, the opportunities are still strong.
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