Illuminating the Momentum Behind UAE’s Trade Surge
The UAE is on course to hit its ambitious AED 4 trillion (US $1.1 trillion) non‑oil trade goal two years ahead of its 2031 target, buoyed by a booming non‑oil sector, announced His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President, Prime Minister of the UAE, and Ruler of Dubai. This breakthrough underscores the success of diversification policies aimed at making the UAE a leading global trade and economic powerhouse.
Non‑Oil Sector: The Engine of Growth
Record-Breaking Q1 Export Figures
In Q1 2025, non‑oil exports jumped an astonishing 40.7% year-on-year, amounting to AED 177.3 billion (US $48.3 billion). Non‑oil foreign trade meanwhile surged 18.6% to AED 835 billion (US $227.5 billion), marking a significant structural shift in the economy.
These numbers signal a newfound confidence in the UAE’s exporters, who are increasingly tapping into growing global demand, even as FDI inflows and new free-trade initiatives continue to open doors.
GDP Powered by Non‑Oil Activities
Driven by diversification efforts, the non‑oil sector made up 75.5% of UAE GDP in 2024, as GDP itself reached AED 1.776 trillion (US $482 billion) with a 4% rise over the previous year .
Key sectoral growth included:
- Transport & logistics (+9.6%)—airports handled ~147.8 million passengers
- Construction (+8.4%)
- Financial & insurance services (+7%)
- Hospitality (+5.7%)
- Real estate (+4.8%)
Trade itself remained the largest contributor to non‑oil GDP, with wholesale and retail at 16.8%, followed by manufacturing (13.5%), financial services (13.2%), and construction (11.7%) .
Strategic Trade Partnerships Accelerate Expansion
A key pillar of this expansion has been the UAE’s aggressive bilateral trade strategy, anchored by Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs). As of early 2025, exports to these partner nations surged 42.3%, accounting for about 25% of all non‑oil exports .
Active CEPAs include ties with India, Indonesia, Israel, Turkey, Australia, Ukraine, Malaysia, and others—opening up both demand for exports and investment in high-growth sectors like technology, food, logistics, and green energy .
Moreover, the UAE is in bilateral trade negotiations with the EU and US, targeting new avenues for the export of steel, aluminium, services, and sustainable technology by late 2025 .
Leadership Vision and Institutional Confidence
Sheikh Mohammed emphasizes that the UAE’s trajectory—the non‑oil trade growth of 18.6% and exports buoyed by 41%—is exceptional, far above global averages (~2–3%) . He attributes these gains to leadership clarity, strategic governance, and collaborative mobilisation.
Minister of Economy Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri echoes this sentiment, noting the impressive diversification—a key milestone in the “We the UAE 2031” vision, aimed at tripling GDP to AED 3 trillion. He highlights policy effectiveness in cultivating a knowledge- and innovation-based economy.
Innovation, Infrastructure, and the “Make it in the Emirates” Drive
The UAE is backing its trade ambitions with policy and infrastructure investment. The “Make it in the Emirates” initiative, part of Operation 300 Bn, encourages domestic manufacturing, innovation, and R&D—aligned with goals to raise manufacturing’s GDP contribution to AED 300 billion by 2031.
Robust investment in logistics infrastructure—airports, seaports, rail networks across the GCC—is positioning the UAE as a global re-export hub, connecting Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas .
Emerald Lining & Challenges Ahead
- Strategic advantage: CEPAs and logistics infrastructure position the UAE for even more diversified trade.
- Human capital: Targeted visas, simplified business registration, and favorable licensing boost SME growth and entrepreneurship .
- Fiscal strength: With non-oil GDP also supporting tax reforms (VAT, minimum corporate tax), the UAE is strengthening its fiscal independence .
Still, PMI figures show moderation in non‑oil activity in May 2025 (PMI at 53.3, lowest in 44 months), indicating some uncertainties from global pressures like tariffs.
What Lies Ahead: Eyes on 2031 and Beyond
The UAE’s plan is bold:
- Meet AED 4 trillion non-oil trade by 2027, two years ahead.
- Push GDP to AED 3 trillion by 2031, with non-oil GDP near AED 3 trillion in real terms.
- Expand global CEPAs, targeting EU, US, ASEAN, and Africa—solidifying its role as a global hub for trade, finance, tourism, tech, and renewables.
Conclusion
The UAE’s achievement in fast-tracking its $1.1 trillion non-oil trade target is not just a numerical milestone—but a powerful signal of strategic vision, diversification success, and global relevance.
Guided by Sheikh Mohammed’s leadership, underpinned by strong institutions and global alliances, the UAE is transforming itself into a futuristic knowledge and trade powerhouse.
As the world watches this nation’s next moves—from cutting-edge logistics to trailblazing free-trade deals—the message is clear: UAE isn’t just keeping pace—it’s setting the pace.
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